#1 The DBacks Ace will need to shoulder a big load again von panxing18 12.07.2019 04:23

in 2019"If familiar with this series go ahead and skip to poll. If not Mike Piazza Jersey , please read on.This series of articles will run from now until shortly before opening day. The purpose is to crowd source the D-Backs fans of this website to get a sense of how they feel about the prospects of each individual player on the 40 man roster. For this exercise I will only be using rate (average) stats and poll the readers on their sense of direction for that playerís level of basic performance, regardless of playing time expectations.Iím not including defense and base running, so no WAR here, as that is playing time dependent. You will be given two poll options:The player will either exceed the projection or under perform the projection by 5% for hitters OPS or 10% for pitchers ERA/FIP.There is no middle option to vote on. (Otherwise the majority of votes would end up agreeing with the projection).What I am looking for is if you are forced to indicate your sense of direction for the player, is it well over or under the projection?Other Points of note:Projections are the average of Steamer and ZIPS projections.(Click through for original tables)The projections draw on 3 or 4 year samples, weighting most recent seasons the heaviest, but Iím just showing 2018 and career statsin mini table below for simplicityThe playerís name is high lighted with a link to the playerís Baseball-Reference page.Click on that to see more player history and detailAge is the 2019 player age.Polls will run until mid March, so if you miss a player,you can go to the story stream box on the front page andfind a player you might have missed .Please let us know in the comments section your thoughts behind your vote. Thanks !CONTEXT ZACK GREINKE . Age 35ZACK GREINKE IS PROJECTED FOR A 3.77 ERA/ 3.82 FIP. Is he likely to come in Over or Under ? Rockies fans know it, and the evidence suggests it: Heltonís a Hall of Famer"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Scaling the RocksPebble ReportRockpileRockies Game ThreadsRockies Fan ExperienceBaseball Hall of FamePast and PresentScaling the RocksBaseball Hall of Fame: The partisan case for Todd HeltonNew,23commentsRockies fans know it, and the evidence suggests it: Heltonís a Hall of FamerByEric Garcia McKinley@garcia_mckinleyNov 30, 2018,8:35am MSTShareTweetShareShareBaseball Hall of Fame: The partisan case for Todd HeltonHall of Fame ballots are out, and completed ballots are beginning to trickle in. And http://www.dodgersfanproshop.com/authentic-max-muncy-jersey , for the first time, weíll be tracking the ups and downs of Todd Heltonís vote, who is eligible for the first time. Thanks to Ryan Thibodeauxís public ballot tracker, we can heap praise on those who vote for Helton ó youíre the best, Adam Rubin! And we can also cry ďof course a guy who voted for Omar Vizquel and not Todd Helton is named Assenheimer.Ē Iím going to assume that most readers here want to see Helton in the Hall of Fame. Even ďsmall hallĒ folks with Bench-ian standards probably recognize that the Hall is not, in fact, small, and that a club that includes Bill Mazeroski should most definitely also include Helton. So letís not start with the question: Should Todd Helton be in the Hall of Fame? And instead get that ďYES!Ē answer out of the way and lay out the unapologetic, emotionally driven but still backed up by evidence case for Todd Heltonís Hall of Fame bona fides. The statsHall of Fame cases involve more than a dissection of numbers, but this is where they generally begin. Heltonís unadjusted slash line has typically meant automatic inclusion. There have only been 22 players to have played more than 1,000 games and maintained a slash line of at least .300/.400/.500. Of those 22 players, 15 of them are in the Hall of Fame. The seven who are not are either active or have special circumstances surrounding their exclusion. The six other than Helton are:Manny Ram铆rezLarry WalkerEdgar Mart铆nezJoey VottoMike TroutShoeless Joe JacksonMart铆nez will likely be elected this round, while Votto and Trout are shoe-ins once they retire. Iím confident Walker will make it in by way of a Veteranís Committee vote, and the only that could keep Ram铆rez out is a history of PED use, and even he may make it in. The only one here whoís extremely unlikely to ever make it in is Shoeless Joe Chase Utley Jersey , and thatís because he was banned from baseball. Heltonís raw slash line, however, is double damned not only because part of his peak was in pre-humidor Coors Field, but also because it was the height of the steroids era. But, we can say to the detractors that his adjusted stats are also Hall of Fame worthy. Heltonís career OPS+, which adjusts for park and era, was 133. Unlike his unadjusted stats, his OPS+ doesnít find him in a group with mostly Hall of Famers. But it also does not not find him in a group with some Hall of Famers. There have been 27 first basemen with a career OPS+ of at least 130, and 12 of them are in the Hall of Fame. This includes players like Jeff Bagwell and Willie McCovey, even though their adjusted lines were in the upper 140s rather than the lower 130s. Heltonís career OPS+ matches that of Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda. Of the 15 first baseman with an OPS+ over 130 who are not in the Hall of Fame, three are active (Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, and Freddie Freeman), one isnít yet eligible for a vote (Prince Fielder), two are PED cases (Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro) http://www.dodgersfanproshop.com/authentic-max-muncy-jersey , and one is named Dolph (Camilli). The point is: There may be more non-Hall of Famers with with a 130-ish career OPS+, but itís not an exclusionary point. Finally, thereís the Hall of Fame specific stat. Jay Jaffeís JAWS system remains the gold standard for evaluating Hall-worthiness. It looks at career Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Referenceís model), WAR during a 7-year peak, and uses those figures to identify a JAWS score. Players on the ballot can then be compared to others who played their position using era adjusted figures. Heltonís 53.9 JAWS score ranks 15th among first baseman and is negligibly short of the 54.7 average among 21 Hall of Fame first baseman. Of the 14 players ahead of him on the list, 12 are Hall of Famers, two are future Hall of Famers (Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera) and one is named Rafael (Palmeiro). Heltonís JAWS score is higher than Hall of Fame first baseman like Cepeda, Harmon Killebrew, and Tony P茅rez.How Helton put together his JAWS score is usually used as a mark against him, but it can also be put to his advantage. Heltonís career WAR falls short of average, but his peak was above average among Hall of Fame first baseman. His peak, in fact, is 10th best among first baseman in baseball history. Eight of the nine players ahead of him are in the Hall of Fame, and the ninth is future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols. Heltonís 7-year peak was better than Frank Thomasís. It was better than Willie McCoveyís. His peak should be reason enough to cast a vote for Helton. The narrativeHall of Fame cases may begin with numbers, but thatís not where they end. There are narrative elements involved as well ó how meaningful was the player to his team Maury Wills Jersey , city, and baseball? Were there any standout moments that elevate him above other players with similar stats? The story-side of things is exactly why the mentioned-above Bill Mazeroski has his faced bronzed in the Hall of Fame. Here, Helton has an edge. Nearly three years ago I made the case that while Larry Walker had a better career than Helton, Helton had the Hall of Fame advantage because he has the better story. I stand by it. Helton was homegrown and played his entire 17-year career in Colorado; he was a key part of the most memorable run in Rockies history; his pose when recording the final out of the 2007 NLCS is his indelible moment; and his number 17 is the first, and thus far only, number the Rockies have retired to sit next to Jackie Robinsonís 42. If elected, there will be no question about which hat will be on his plaque, and that matters. The ConclusionDonít be an Assenheimer ó vote for Todd Helton. As Rockies fans know, and as the evidence supports, he deserves it.

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